OpenVulnerability: an interactive web platform for harmonising multi-hazard physical impact models

Project ID: 2228cd1390 (You will need this ID for your application)

UCL Lead department: Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction (IRDR)

Project Summary:

In 2022, natural hazards caused 30,704 deaths and 224B US$ losses. Accurate models to estimate future losses are fundamental towards effective risk mitigation. For a hazard-prone area, risk models first characterise exposure (e.g., households and assets) and hazard intensities (e.g., earthquake shaking). Physical impact models are then adopted to quantify the consequences (e.g., economic loss, human displacement) of hazards of a given intensity on physical assets (e.g., buildings, infrastructures, lifelines). It is often unfeasible to develop bespoke physical impact models for each asset and hazard combination, especially in data-scarce contexts (e.g., Global South). Therefore, assets are generally grouped based on common exposure attributes and are assigned suitable existing models. Many physical impact models - including fragility, vulnerability, and consequence models - are available for different combinations of asset types and hazards (single or multiple). Moreover, systematic methodologies are available to appraise, score, and select the most suitable models for a given asset class and a specific geographical context. Nonetheless, the above selection process is ineffective and often impossible because: 1) models are derived based on different exposure taxonomies, damage-state definitions, consequence metrics, and no harmonised data schema is currently available for multi-hazard purposes; 2) no harmonised, open-access database of multi-hazard models is currently available. This PhD project will tackle the above research gaps by developing: 1) an extensive database of multi-hazard physical impact models harmonised based on the state-of-the-art exposure taxonomies, damage-state definitions, and consequence metrics; 2) the open-source digital ecosystem “OpenVulnerability”, which will allow practitioners, industrial players, and academics to easily search, appraise, score, and select physical impact models. The ideal candidate for this project is familiar with the basic aspects of probabilistic risk assessment and has minimum coding/programming skills. Upon completion, the candidate will become a leader in multi-hazard risk modelling, with critical skills useful in disaster management.